geico. fifteen minutes could save you fifteen percent or more on car insurance. who sells those remote control helicopters at the mall. buy 'em or don't. whatever man. either way, he gets to fly helicopters all day. and he eats the liquid gold of velveeta shells & cheese. achieve your dreams. eat like that guy you know. >>> here are spades. >> i know before the cards are even turned over. >> aces full. >> politics is a lot like big-time no limit poker. a high stakes game mastered by people with huge egos and a wealth of data where the line between champ and chump is razor thing. nate silver knows about that because he was a professional poker player before he was a political blogger. he's at 538 on twitter, and the new book, "the signal and the noise" say must read. second day in a row we have a guy named nate in the gift spot. we rename it the nate spot. without further ado, nate dog. how are you doing, brother? >> good. >> your book is about predictions from poker, politics, weather and baseball. you talk about dealing with unknown you know youzhnunknowns. why